Recent behandelde McKinsey dit salliant onderwerp, gebaseerd op hun boek “Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies“.
Wat leren wij hieruit?
High-Tech bedrijven worden gekenmerkt door:
- fast growth and high uncertainty,
- widely varying valuations.
Hoe zulke fast growers waarderen?
- Well-established general valuation principles work just fine,
- Discounted-cash-flow valuations still apply (core principles of economics and finance),
- Alternatives, such as price- to-earnings or value-to-sales multiples, are of little use,
- All these so-called alternatives provide little insight into what drives valuation.
Hoe begin je aan een high-tech waardering?
- begin by examining the expected long- term development of the company’s markets—and then work backward,
- focus on the potential size of the market and the company’s market share as well as the level of return on capital the company might be able to earn,
- always value the company under different probability-weighted scenarios of how the market might develop under different conditions.
A “HOW-TO” VALUATION GUIDE?
- Start from the future (Back to the Future!).
- Size the market.
- Estimate operating margin, capital intensity, and return on invested capital.
- Work backward to current performance.
- Develop weighted scenarios.