Professor Pablo Fernandez is onze Europese Aswath Damodaran (http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/).
In onze eerdere blog bijdragen commentarieerden wij reeds een aantal keren zijn zeer gevatte tussenkomsten, bevindingen en commentaren.
De kers op de spreekwoordelijke taart was zijn uitspraak dat “CAPM: An Absurd Model” zou zijn.
Kritische commentaren vooral vanuit theoretisch/academische hoek konden niet uitblijven, zie zijn paper op CAPM- The Model and 233 comments About it
Toch blijft hij, en ons inziens meer dan volledig terecht, bij zijn eerdere conclusies:
- The CAPM is about expected return. If you find a formula that works well in the real markets, would you publish it? Before or after becoming a billionaire?
- The CAPM is an absurd model because not only its assumptions but also its predictions/conclusions have no basis in the real world.
- With the vast amount of information and research that we have, it is quite clear that the CAPM does not “explain facts or events”, nor does it “describe the past, present, or future state of something”.
- It is important to differentiate between a fact (something that truly exists or happens: something that has actual existence; a true piece of information) and an opinion (what someone thinks about a particular thing).
- Valuation is about required return. There are persons, papers and books that mix (or assume that are equal) expected and required returns.
- A common request of many students and managers: ‘Give me a rule of thumb I can follow without thinking’.
- We may find out an investor’s expected return for IBM by asking him. However, it is impossible to determine the expected return for IBM of the market, because this parameter does not exist. Different investors have different cash flow expectations and different expected (and required) returns to equity. One could only talk of the expected return of the market if all investors had the same expectations. But investors do not have homogeneous expectations.
Tenslotte, zijn advies naar specialisten èn generalisten van bedrijfswaardering:
- try to step back after doing an assignment and look at it to see if it is logical,
- use a little more common sense in every assignment and fewer recipes, especially if you don’t understand the recipe.
- Dreams are in the head. But action creates growth, creates skill, creates excellence.
- Edison didn’t dream about a lightbulb. He tried 10,000 experiments before one worked. Henry Ford didn’t just dream about making a car. He started three car companies and made the assembly line before he finally had success. Steve Jobs didn’t dream about the ipod. He bought one of the first Sony Walkmans and took it apart and figured out how to do it better.
- Thinking keeps the adventures of life bottled in your head. ACTION makes you a hero!